Following a season in which they finished among the NFL’s worst five, Pro Football Focus (PFF) is urging the Minnesota Vikings to sign two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry this summer.
Brad Spielberger of PFF noted the Vikings’ run-game woes in a piece published on February 5. The team ended with the fifth-fewest attempts per game (23.1) and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.3).
Spielberger suggested that Henry would be a possible “buy-low candidate,” writing that Minnesota’s rushing attack was among the least effective in the NFL this past season and that they might be seeking to bring along a young quarterback whether or not they retain Kirk Cousins in the fold.
“There might be enough of a buy-low opportunity here on Henry, but this front office may not be seen as one that is very likely to pay top dollar to the running back position, especially after they sharply moved on from Dalvin Cook before the 2023 season.”
Henry’s four-year, $50 million contract with the Tennessee Titans expires in March, and the Vikings may be able to sign the recurring Pro Bowl back for less money when he turns thirty in 2024 and heads into the offseason.
In a year when the four-time Pro Bowl running back with the New York Jets saw a sharp decrease in his play, the Vikings made the proper decision in cutting Cook. However, following Alexander Mattison’s underwhelming season, they have not been able to find a successful substitute for Cook.
Another running back with a high drop-off rate given his age and NFL mileage is Henry. However, PFF has discovered that Henry has defied numerous tendencies that point to a decline at his age.
According to PFF’s free agency analysis, “there is only one ‘Tractorcito,’ with Henry’s usage as a screen receiver in recent seasons adding another element to his game.” Whether that is related to a running back’s age or number of carries, Henry hasn’t yet reached the proverbial wall. Even in 2023, his 3.32 yards after contact per attempt was very good.
Henry is still in the green, regardless of the measure.
In terms of running yards over expected (RYOE) for NFL Next Gen, he is positive. Henry faced eight-man fronts on 35.36% of his running attempts, yet he still managed to average a solid 4.2 yards per carry. Henry also placed sixth in breakaway percentage (33%) and second in total yards after contact (930).
