Here are my top MLB player proposition bets for the evening of Thursday, April 16, 2024. With a full 15-game lineup of MLB action today, there are several opportunities for finding betting value. Let’s dive into my favorite picks:
Alec Bohm (PHI) over 1.5 total bases (+100)
The Philadelphia Phillies are up against the Colorado Rockies in Game 2 of their series, following a tense opener earlier in the week. It’s evident that the Rockies’ pitching staff is struggling this season, with Cal Quantrill’s standout performance being the exception.
Today, the Rockies will start left-hander Austin Gomber, whose numbers since last year paint a grim picture. Particularly, Gomber has struggled against right-handed hitters, making Alec Bohm a promising prospect. Despite a slower start this season, Bohm has historically performed well against left-handers, making this even-money bet a worthwhile investment given his track record. Plus, even if Bohm doesn’t deliver early against Gomber, the Rockies’ bullpen is far from intimidating, ranking poorly in SIERA and Pitching+.
Cody Bellinger (CHC) over 0.5 runs scored (-115)
The Chicago Cubs’ offense has shown inconsistency this season, partly due to Cody Bellinger’s slow start. Bellinger has crossed home plate in only 4 of his 16 games and has failed to do so in his last 5 outings. However, Tuesday night presents an excellent opportunity for a turnaround. Following a low-scoring extra-innings game last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks will send left-handed pitcher Tommy Henry to the mound, who has shown inconsistency. Despite occasional struggles, the Cubs have performed decently against left-handed pitchers, ranking #13 in wRC+ and #3 in HardHit%. Market indicators also suggest potential offensive momentum for the Cubs in this matchup. While Henry relies heavily on his fastball and sinker, Bellinger has historically performed well against this pitch combination from lefties. Expect Bellinger to get on base at least once against Henry, and even if he doesn’t score early in the game, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is under strain after recent heavy usage of their top relievers.
