October 31, 2024

Let’s begin with a graph.

One of the hottest hitters in the game for the first 40 games or so, Alec Bohm has cooled off considerably. You don’t need me to interpret that graph; it’s right there in front of you. Looking at the baseball card numbers, you can see it as well (cherry-picked dates and everything!).

**Games 1-40:** 160 PA, .343/.406/.539 (.945 OPS), 15/25 BB/K, 4 HR, 32 RBI, .391 BABIP
**Games 41-67:** 119 PA, .211/.252/.349 (.601 OPS), 5/14 BB/K, 2 HR, 20 RBI, .219 BABIP

If you’re anything like me, you’ll notice the stark difference in OPS and the significant role luck has played in Bohm’s performance. The nearly 180-point difference in BABIP indicates that when he’s hitting the ball now, it’s finding defenders.

The concern with Bohm during cold streaks is that he may start to expand the zone to hit his way out of it. We’ve seen, at least anecdotally, that he begins to chase pitches around the edges, getting himself out instead of maintaining a patient approach and waiting for pitches he can drive. Of course, last year, he could simply be thrown a pitch down the middle, and it wouldn’t matter much.

This season, whatever Kevin Long preached to Bohm in the offseason has clearly stuck. Through these first 60+ games, Bohm has rarely missed when pitches have been around the zone.

But our concern lies with the last few games. If we’re looking to see if Bohm was reverting to “old habits” of chasing anything near the plate, the answer is clearly no. There were stories about the organizational emphasis on not chasing as the approach of choice to start the season. It worked for some, like Bohm, and not for others, like Nick Castellanos. The mantra was to stick with a patient approach at the plate, with results to follow.

Looking specifically at Bohm, it seems he has adhered to that mantra, even now.

That’s really encouraging since it shows that the lessons and principles Long has been teaching have taken root and led to success. So, we need to look at other possible reasons for Bohm’s struggles.

As I mentioned before, the number that stands out is the BABIP. A .219 BABIP is almost impossibly, comically low. The best word to describe it might be “unsustainable,” though in baseball, nothing is impossible. On the bright side, Bohm is still hitting the ball hard.

There was a bit of a dip, as you can see, but it’s not significant enough to cause major concern. Improvement is certainly possible, but then we wouldn’t have these struggles to discuss in the first place.

The real issue seems to be the classic baseball challenge: pitchers have adjusted. Take a look at this graph showing how pitch usage against Bohm has changed as the season has progressed.

 

Fastballs have been more prevalent recently, whereas the usage of offspeed and breaking pitches has declined. What’s behind this shift? I’m sure you can anticipate the next graph.

If he’s not hitting the fastball hard, why wouldn’t pitchers continue to throw it to him?

At the start of the season, Bohm was hitting the fastball with power. However, pitchers in Major League Baseball are adept at adjusting their approach. They began reducing the frequency of fastballs thrown to him. Recently, though, there has been a reversal in this trend. Pitchers are now increasing their use of fastballs against him because he’s struggling to make solid contact with them. They’re finding more success by simply throwing it past him more frequently in current games.

If Bohm aims to regain his early-season form, rediscovering his ability to hit the fastball will be crucial.

This ebb and flow is typical over the course of a long baseball season. It’s a continual chess match where hitters and pitchers constantly adjust to each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Currently, pitchers appear to have identified something in Bohm’s approach that they are exploiting. The team is likely addressing this issue and working with Bohm to make the necessary adjustments. It may take some time, but improvements should come.

Despite this challenge, it’s important not to overlook Bohm’s achievements so far this season. When considering the National League third baseman ballot, Bohm is clearly leading and should be the frontrunner to start in the All-Star Game. However, given the unpredictability of fan voting, it remains to be seen if he will secure that spot. Looking ahead to the rest of the season, the key for Bohm will be returning to his effective hitting against fastballs.

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