One of the many pitchers the Pittsburgh Pirates selected in the 2023 MLB Draft was right-hander Carlson Reed. Reed pitched exclusively as a reliever in his final year at West Virginia University before being picked in the fourth round, but the Pirates have transitioned him to a starting role in 2024, and so far, it’s been a great success.
Reed has thrown 55 innings with a 2.29 ERA, 3.38 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. He boasts a 29.6% strikeout rate, has allowed only two home runs all year, and maintains a 54.1% ground ball rate. Reed has kept hitters off balance all season, inducing a swing-and-miss rate of 31.3%, higher than the A-Ball average of 30.2%. When batters make contact, it’s usually weak, with an 84.5 MPH exit velocity, well below the A-Ball average of 86.8 MPH. His opponent barrel rate is a mere 1.8%.
The only downside has been his 13.5% walk rate. Reed struggled with command at WVU, and it remains the biggest challenge in his 2024 season. However, his control has slightly improved over his last six starts, with an 11.5% BB%.
While Reed’s numbers are impressive, the quality of his pitches also stands out. Here’s a deeper look at his arsenal:
**Sinker:**
Reed’s primary pitch this season is his sinker, sitting around 91-93 MPH and topping out at 95-96 MPH, with an average spin rate just under 1900 RPM. Although it hasn’t generated many swings and misses (14.2% whiff rate), it shows above-average movement. With 22.6 inches of vertical drop and 13.6 inches of horizontal break, it’s comparable to Hayden Wesneski’s sinker from the Cubs.
**Four-Seam Fastball:**
Reed’s four-seam fastball is slightly faster, averaging 93.6 MPH and maxing out around 96-97 MPH. This pitch has a higher whiff rate at 22.6%. It has decent ride through the zone with 15.6 inches of vertical drop and minimal horizontal movement (eight inches). Michael Soroka’s four-seam fastball shows similar characteristics.
**Slider:**
Reed’s slider is his primary breaking pitch, sitting in the low-80s and reaching up to 86 MPH, with an average spin rate of 2645 RPM. This pitch has a 60% whiff rate and allows weak contact with an average exit velocity of 80.9 MPH. It has 37 inches of vertical drop and 11.8 inches of horizontal break, similar to Andrew Nardi’s slider from the Miami Marlins.
**Changeup:**
Reed’s changeup is an excellent offspeed pitch, thrown at 83.4 MPH and topping out at 90 MPH, with a spin rate of 1611 RPM. It has a 62.2% whiff rate and induces even weaker contact, with an average exit velocity of 77.8 MPH. The changeup shows 31.4 inches of vertical movement and 12.8 inches of horizontal arm-side movement, similar to Tyler Anderson’s changeup.
Reed’s pitches are enhanced by his release point. Standing at 6’4” and 200 pounds, Reed releases the ball nearly seven feet from the rubber, adding deception and making his pitches appear faster. For instance, his four-seam fastball averages 93.4 MPH but looks like 94.3 MPH out of his hand, and his sinker averages 92.3 MPH but appears as 93.2 MPH.
Reed has excelled as a starting pitcher, though a future as a reliever isn’t off the table. His performance at A-Ball has been among the best in the Pirates’ system. At just 21, Reed has time to increase his velocity, which could be a deciding factor in whether he remains a starter or transitions to a reliever role.
