The start of the 2024 regular season is just around the corner, and the Chicago Bears seem ready to climb out of the league’s basement and into contender status. I say “seem” because it’s important to temper expectations, especially with a rookie quarterback who may need time to adjust to the NFL. Even Patrick Mahomes had some early struggles, throwing no touchdowns and one interception in his first game. Many, including myself, initially viewed the Bears’ 2024 schedule as manageable, particularly outside the NFC North.
One reason for this optimism was Chicago entering the season with the third-easiest strength of schedule. However, predicting a team’s schedule strength is tricky. It’s usually based on the previous year’s performance and various other factors, including Vegas odds on over/under win totals. While many of the teams the Bears face aren’t expected to have winning records, preseason predictions don’t always pan out. Just look at the Texans’ surprising performance last year—anything can happen on any given Sunday.
That said, Vegas oddsmakers usually have a good read on things since sportsbooks are in the business of making money. Recently updated projected win totals show that the Bears’ 2024 schedule may not be as easy as first thought.
**The Bears’ 2024 schedule is tougher than originally expected**
Before the preseason ended, Chicago was projected to have the third-easiest schedule based on win totals. Now, they’ve dropped to having the fifth-easiest schedule. The teams with easier schedules ahead of the Bears are the Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Jets.
Still, having the fifth-easiest schedule is a positive for Chicago. Many sportsbooks have set the Bears’ over/under at 9.5 wins for the season, which is impressive considering they have a rookie quarterback, albeit one as highly regarded as Caleb Williams.
Analyst Warren Sharp points out that there is no perfect model for predicting schedule strength, though he believes that using current projected win totals is more accurate than relying on past records. This makes sense, given that various factors can impact a team’s success between one season and the next.
One thing working in the Bears’ favor is that their NFC North rivals also face challenges. The Vikings are ranked 30th in schedule difficulty, Green Bay is ranked 27th, and the Lions are ranked 18th. This could help the Bears leap from worst to first in the division this season.
