Since November 9, Major League Baseball (MLB) executives, media, and fans have ramped up speculation about where former Chiba Lotte Marines pitcher Roki Sasaki will land for the 2025 season. Because Sasaki is under 25 and classified as an international amateur free agent, he would need to sign a minor league contract if he joins an MLB team before December 15. However, if he delays signing until January 15, Sasaki could bypass a minor league stint and increase his earnings due to different contract conditions for players signing after age 25. According to Ben Badler of *Baseball America*, the maximum an MLB team could spend to sign him would be approximately $7.56 million.
The process for his transition involves Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) posting system. Under this system, an NPB player wishing to join an MLB team before completing nine years in the league can be posted by his Japanese club. The Chiba Lotte Marines are expected to post Sasaki this winter, giving all 30 MLB teams a 45-day negotiation window. The Marines would receive a release fee of 20 percent of any guaranteed contract up to $25 million, under the 2018-2019 posting rules.
Several teams are seen as strong contenders for Sasaki’s signature. The Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off their 2024 World Series win, are prominent due to their recent success and history of signing Japanese players, including Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter. Ohtani and Yamamoto, who played with Sasaki on Japan’s World Baseball Classic (WBC) team in 2023, make the Dodgers particularly appealing in Japan. Dodgers executives have already traveled to Japan to see Sasaki pitch, and the team has over $2.5 million in their 2024 international bonus pool and $5.1 million in 2025, giving them a financial edge.
The San Diego Padres are also a possibility. Sasaki built a strong friendship with Padres pitcher Yu Darvish during the 2023 WBC, where Darvish mentored him as Japan won the title. Known for helping Japanese players transition to MLB, Darvish’s influence could steer Sasaki toward San Diego. The Padres’ 2024 international bonus pool is low, at $2,200, but they have $6.2 million set aside for 2025, which could cover Sasaki’s signing.
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies are also interested in Sasaki. The Cubs, needing to bolster their rotation after posting a 3.77 team ERA last season (10th best in MLB), have been scouting Sasaki in Japan. They have $237,200 in their 2024 bonus pool and $6.2 million for 2025, positioning them to make a competitive offer. Meanwhile, the Phillies, who unsuccessfully pursued Yamamoto last year, also have Sasaki on their radar. They’re looking to improve their pitching staff and have $42,200 in their 2024 bonus pool and $6.2 million for 2025.
As Sasaki’s official posting date approaches, the competition to sign him remains fierce, with multiple MLB teams jockeying for the opportunity to add one of Japan’s top pitchers to their roster.
